An Idiot’s Guide to the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot
As odd as it feels to play a major during football season (you know, pandemic and all), the US Open really is this weekend, and it figures to be a classic. Let’s get right into it.
Are a bunch of top players out due to coronavirus concerns like tennis and women’s golf?
No. Only two players in the top 50 in the world rankings aren’t in the field this week: No. 8 Brooks Koepka (knee injury) and No. 28 Scottie Scheffler (just tested positive for coronavirus). The only other notable absences are Francesco Molinari, who hasn’t played anywhere since February for family reasons and seen his world ranking plummet as a result, and Sam Horsfield, who was tearing up the European Tour before a positive coronavirus test this week. That means just about everyone is here.
Will there be fans on site?
Thankfully, no. Meathead fans yelling dumb slogans is always a problem at all big non-Masters events in the United States, and even more so in the New York area, so you won’t have to listen to any members of the angry, unwashed, Make America Great Again swarm yell “Mashed Potatoes!” after impact on a tee shot. But more importantly, the lack of fans means the course can play as intended. Catch a flyer out of the rough? No gallery to stop the ball from rolling down a hill behind the green. Blow a drive 40 yards off the fairway? You’ll be in thick rough instead of having a clean lie where the gallery trampled down the grass.
How hard will Winged Foot play? Will the winning score be over par?
Quite likely. There have been five previous US Opens at Winged Foot, and in those five, a grand total of two players have finished under par after 72 holes (Fuzzy Zoeller and Greg Norman in 1978). The most recent was 2006, when Phil Mickelson and Colin Montgomerie both double-bogeyed the 72nd hole to lose by one to Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy finished the week +5 with a grand total of nine birdies the entire week. This was also site of the infamous Massacre at Winged Foot in 1974, when Hale Irwin won at +7 after the USGA went crazy with the course in response to Johnny Miller’s 63 on Sunday the year before.
So yeah, it’s going to be extremely difficult. It’s 7,500 yards, par 70, there’s only one reachable par 5, the rough is so long players are already complaining about losing balls in it during practice rounds, and the greens are extremely tricky so the potential for USGA shenanigans is high.
Who’s the favorite?
The sportsbooks have Dustin Johnson slightly ahead, but it’s hard to pick anyone besides Jon Rahm this week. He’s won the last two big tournaments played on extremely tough courses (Memorial and the BMW Championship), and it’s only a matter of time before he wins a major. The guy has made 105 career starts between the PGA and European Tours and finished top 10 in 53 of them, with 11 wins and 8 seconds, and that includes tournaments he played as an amateur. No one since Tiger has been this consistently good this early in their career, although Collin Morikawa might give him a run of his money in a year or two. That said, I’d fade Morikawa this week, he’s had trouble with the y*ps on short putts at times in his career, and this is not the course to be shaky over a three-footer.
Speaking of Tiger, is he a contender this week?
Almost certainly not. His form since the restart has been mediocre and the cool fall weather doesn’t figure to do his surgically repaired back any favors. Old style courses like Winged Foot that require careful course management and avoiding missing in the wrong spot play to Tiger’s strength, but the greens are brutally difficult and the last time he played competitively he was putting like this:
How about Phil Mickelson?
Absolutely not. You need to hit fairways with your driver to contend here and he can’t drive the ball on the planet right now. He also hates the USGA so if the course is playing ridiculously hard, another tantrum is very much in play. I get the sense Phil knows he’s never winning a US Open and never wants to play another USGA event the rest of his life, so he could force their hand with a crazy display this week. I’m looking forward to him dominating the Senior Tour while refusing to play in the US Senior Open.
Any dark horses who could win?
You can’t get great odds on him to win (shorter than Justin Rose or Tiger!), but England’s Tyrell Hatton would be my choice. He’s been in great form the last calendar year, including an impressive win at a tough Bay Hill course, and he’s a terrific mid to long iron player which will really help him this week. His putter is extremely streaky, but if he’s on with it this week he could pull a Danny Willett and surprise American fans by winning a major as a top 15 player in the world.
Any young players to keep an eye on?
Danish teenager Rasmus Højgaard is making his major championship debut after winning twice on the European Tour already this season. I don’t believe he’s ever played a tournament in the US before, so this could be a bit much for him, but he’s an incredible talent and one to watch going forward.
All the world’s top amateurs are also in the field, as the USGA cancelled open qualifying due to the pandemic and instead invited the top 10 in the amateur rankings. Japan’s Takumi Kanaya, who won a Japan Tour event late last year and made the cut at the 2019 Masters, looks like the next great player from Japan, while University of Florida rising junior Ricky Castillo is the American amateur most likely to make it on the PGA Tour.
Anyone to root against?
Bryson DeChambeau, obviously. At the last US Open played on a brutally hard course (Shinnecock 2018) he was whining so much Matt Kuchar’s caddy told him to shut up. If he’s struggling this week, look for a repeat.
I’d normally say Jordan Spieth, but at this point Spieth is flailing so badly I’m almost starting to feel bad for him, until I remembered he celebrated his British Open win in 2017 by…hitting his caddy in the nuts. It should be noted he hasn’t won a single tournament worldwide since that happened. Oh, and he’s paired with his jilted former Ryder Cup partner Patrick Reed this week. Reed is going to be so motivated to bury Spieth it might be a good idea to put a wager on Reed this week.
Kevin Kisner made a late entry into this category over the weekend after firing off maybe the worst tweet of the year.
And in the sleeper category, the slowest player on the European Tour, Adrian Otaegui aka the Snail, is last off the tee Thursday at 2:10. Sunset is 6:59 local time, and I give him approximately zero chance of finishing before dark. This should be the penalty for the known slow players: group them together last off the tee both Thursday and Friday, give them the worst of the greens, and see if they can get it in before dark. It would put a stop to it really quick.
