An Idiot's Guide To The US Open
It’s the US Open! It’s America’s slam! How are we living, Ben?
The long sweat of the second hard court swing of the year is over. After rain delays in Montreal and Toronto and the sweltering heat of Cincinnati, we are finally at the worst major of the year: The US Open.
Huh?
The Open is a testament to the misplaced idea of American exceptionalism. It doesn’t have the prestige of Wimbledon. It doesn’t have niche appeal of the French Open. The players don’t like it as much as the Australian Open. Take the US Open away from the New York media market, and it’s the PGA Championship of the tennis world.The US Open’s big differentiator is two things: it’s glitzy, and it has a deciding set tiebreak. The glitziness is obnoxious. Arthur Ashe will become the Staples Center But For More Annoying Celebs. The deciding set tiebreak is bullshit. The inability to break serve should be disqualifying in the slams. The fifth-set breaker is like going straight to penalty kicks after 90 minutes. It’s a derivative form of the game that puts cheap entertainment above letting the best player win.It is garbage wall to wall.
You’re harshing my vibe man, what the hell?
Alright, let’s talk about the actual tennis then!Let’s start with what we already know: what was once The Big Four of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray is now a Big Three with Murray residing in hip surgery hell, but it is back in a big way.Djokovic’s Wimbledon win was not surprising. He was the second-favorite and Federer was looking weary. What is surprising is him backing up Wimbledon with a relatively convincing win in Cincinnati and emerging as the preeminent force on the ATP tour.Federer is yet to recover the form he had going last year. He lost all the ability to return serve at some point in the past eight months, and boy has it been hard to watch at times. He’s not a smart pick based on what we’ve seen since the Australian Open.All Rafa has done since losing his five-set epic against Djokovic at Wimbledon is win another Masters, this time in Montreal. Rafa, however, has gone entirely too long without a dumb loss on hard court. This is the same tournament where he once lost to Fabio Fognini after winning the first two sets. Last year around this time, he lost to a lanky teenager and ebullient boy from Canada with a last name no one knew how to pronounce. Kyle Edmund could take him down, but please do not keep receipts on that statement.
Serena Williams is Vegas’s favorite! Is she taking the trophy home this year?
Serena Williams encapsulates so much she’s impossible to write about.She still gets treated differently than any other athlete. The French Open choosing to ban her “catsuit” wasn’t necessary, but it was impossibly stupid. She gets drug tested basically weekly. She represents so much more than her play on the court, and someone like me isn’t exactly equipped to talk about Serena outside the lines.On the court, Serena Williams has no business being the joint favorite with Simona Halep.She still hasn't shown enough to prove that this past Wimbledon is the rule not the exception for her at this stage in her career.Halep got within a match of completing the first Montreal/Toronto and Cincinnati double in the history of the WTA.The level that she’s hit this year is just silly. She’s won three titles, including her first ever slam at Roland Garros and a Premiere level event in Montreal and appeared in three other finals (Australian Open, Cincinnati, and Rome).Halep can fucking play.She could play Serena in the fourth round, Gabi Muguruza in the quarters, and Sloane Stephens in the semis, and you’d be dumb to bet against her winning all of those.The only problem is the bottom half of the draw. Petra Kvitova is licking her chops. One tough early match against Aryna Sabalenka, a likely match against Daria Kasatkina, and a match against a uninspiring Caroline Wozniacki are the only roadblocks she’ll face en route to the finals. Assuming her withdrawl from New Haven last week was more protective than genuine injury, Kvitova (at +1300!!!) is a great value bet.
Ok, cool, we have our set of four favorites. Who’s worth watching? Any long shots who can make some noise? Any young kids that are ready for the big stage?
May I interest you in some Aryna Sabalenka?Yes, I spent the last 50 words talking about how Petra Kvitova should roll through Sabalenka and maybe win the whole tournament. But if someone’s taking Kvitova out, it’s going to be the twenty-year old Belarussian.Sabalenka is in the finals of New Haven right now, a match away from her first title. She’s skyrocketed through the rankings this summer. She hits the ball hard, covers ground, and is gritty as all hell. If that sounds like an imprecise description of a good player, it’s because Sabalenka is an all-around really good player. The WTA doesn’t have the same group of flashy young stars that the ATP has, but between Sabalenka (20), Kasatkina (21), and Naomi Osaka (20), there’s a crew of young stars who are beginning to buck their head.On the ATP side, none of the youngsters who could make noise aren’t already relatively well known. Denis Shapovalov is Nike’s poster boy for their fall clothing line, Sascha Zverev is already becoming almost boring, Stefanos Tsitsipas is in the top 15 in the world, Andrey Rublev and Hyeon Chung are both hurt, Frances Tiafoe has a sneaky tough draw, and no one else is good enough to matter.But if there’s anyone who’s built for New York, it’s Fabio Fognini.Fognini is certifiably insane.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp_CzLLFDLsThis, of course, is awesome (unless it’s not, which it frequently is). He has a completely shattered brain that will have him cussing out a chair umpire one minute and beating Rafael Nadal in five sets the next. He also, somehow, has legitimate hard court game. He did, after all, beat Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets to win a title in Los Cabos this year. His draw is subtly cushy. It wouldn’t shock me if Roger Federer is knocked out before a potential fourth round meeting with Fognini.
Federer losing early is a spicy take. You’re not seriously suggesting th—
Oh, but I am.That’s right. Nick Kyrgios is taking out Federer in the third round.Nick Kyrgios is rapidly becoming the most powerful version of himself. He tanked a set 6-0 against a very capable professional in Borna Coric and still won the match comfortably. Sure, Kyrgios hasn’t played well at all this year. But Kyrgios always brings his top level game when he plays one of the biggest names in the sport. With Federer looking ever more like a stylish servebot, it’s not too difficult to see a world in which Kyrgios wins two or three tiebreaks en route to an upset win. Then he’ll turn around and immediately lose to Fognini in three sets because Nick Kyrgios is nowhere near fit enough to make any kind of run in a slam. The Kyrgios Experience!
Who cares, I just want to know how the Americans are gonna do.
I hope you like disappointment!Jack Sock is still a Challenger level player, currently checking in at 169th in the season long rankings.Sam Querrey can’t find his game, and either Andreas Seppi and Shapovalov should knock him out in the first two rounds.Ryan Harrison sucks and will lose to Kevin Anderson.None of the young kids (Jared Donaldson, Taylor Fritz, Mackie McDonald, etc) have soft enough draws to matter, except for Tiafoe.YUP, IT’S ANOTHER SLAM WHERE THE ONLY AMERICAN MAN WHO WILL DO WELL IS JOHN ISNER, PLEASE KILL ME WITH A RAKE!The women will do better, but Venus Williams is getting bounced out in the first two rounds, Serena is going to bow out by the quarterfinals, and Coco Vandeweghe is going to lose fast. Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys both have relatively soft draws, which should hide the fact that neither are playing their best tennis.Oh, and Sachia Vickcery is going to beat 7th seeded Elina Svitolina in the first round.
That’s a lot of words. I don’t like most of them. Please just wrap this up so I can ignore this stupid tournament.
It’s weird to still, still be in a world where there are only three men’s tennis players who you feel like could win a slam. And, to be very clear, there are only three men’s players who have any prayer. No trendy “dark horse” pick can actually win. They’re all either hurt or not good enough. The Djokovic reappearance has made it a near impossibility for any first time major winner to break through.You can see the kids getting better. Whether it’s Stefanos beating fifty top-ten players in a week, or Zverev winning another Masters, or Shapovalov finding actual consistency, things are moving in the right direction.But the big time is still dominated by the big names, three of the ten biggest names tennis has ever seen.If that weren’t so cool, it might be kind of a drag.
